Wednesday, June 23, 2010

War on Iran (and World War III) This Summer?

Maurizio d'Orlando reports that "12 US warships transited through the Suez Canal a few days ago" — US military pressure increasing in the Persian Gulf. This in addition to the "387 bunker buster bombs... shipped to the US base in Diego Garcia" and the "three naval squadrons with fighter planes... in position in the region, plus planes deployed at the US airbase at Diego Garcia," means that "[p]reparations thus are complete for a possible attack against sites where, according to the United States and Israel, Iran is building its first nuclear bomb." Mr. d'Orlando suggests, "If war does break out, the best period would be the end of July and early August."

"The main factors behind the timing of this political-military crisis are economic in nature," Mr. d'Orlando suggests, noting that "it is already clear that Obama’s 'economic stimulus', as advised by Keynesian economists like Paul Krugman, has not only failed to increase employment, but that it has, through higher government spending, punched a huge hole in the US federal deficit, certainly more than 10 per cent of the GDP."

"In order to hide the economic and social fiasco (with real unemployment at 22 per cent of the active workforce)," the author continues, "a foreign threat and a military and political emergency are needed, but they must come before tax and employment data are released in order to achieve a minimum degree of credibility and be picked up by big information media." Noting that "Iran’s governing regime also needs an external threat to hold onto power," Mr. d'Orlando argues that "both sides appear to follow the rationale that led to the Falklands War when Argentinian generals were in charge of a country on the brink of economic bankruptcy and the British establishment was still facing tough domestic choices in order to restructure the country’s economy in the wake of Britain’s long movement away from empire." His conclusion:
    A foreign threat or a war overseas are one of the oldest and most tested political tools to close ranks at home. However, today’s social, political and economic instability are global in scope. It is hard to imagine how an intervention could be surgically limited to a specific context, especially if that context is the Persian Gulf. Lighting a match and throwing it in to start a fire could quickly get out of hand and blow up the world’s powder keg.
On a personal note, my grandfather picked up a lung fungus that eventually killed him while serving in Iran in World War II.

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Omnes Sancti et Sanctæ Coreæ, orate pro nobis.